The tight inventory situation, which was most severe earlier in the summer when factories were still reopening, is now moderating and sales have followed. Production should be less of a hurdle now with factories operating close to pre-pandemic levels.

The economic recovery is also continuing to show modest improvements, so there is little reason to expect that the vehicle market will make a substantial change in its current recovery path in the coming months. However, there remain many risks that could hold back sales, including a second COVID-19 wave, a second dip in the economy, and next week’s election, with potential disruptions that could occur as a result. 

Seasonal adjustments are impacting the SAAR this month. There are 28 selling days this October, one more selling day compared to last October, and three more selling days compared to September. The additional days should result in higher sales volume within the month, and the SAAR is adjusted accordingly. The adjusted change for the SAAR results in a market down about 2% from last year.  

October 2020 Sales Highlights and New Full-Year 2020 Forecast

  • New vehicle sales are forecast to rise to 1.36 million units, up 1.7% compared to October 2019. When compared to last month, sales are expected to increase around 25,000 units, or nearly 1.9%.
  • The SAAR in October 2020 is estimated to be 16.4 million, below last year’s 16.8 million level, but a modest gain on last month, and continuing the recovery since April’s bottom to six months of continuous increases.
  • The Cox Automotive full-year sales forecast has been updated to 14.3 million units, down 16% from 2019. New retail will perform better than fleet, down 9%, while fleet is forecast to come in near 1.9 million, down 42%.

October 2020 Sales Forecast


Sales Forecast1

Market Share


Segment

Oct-20

Oct-19

Sep-20

YOY%

MOM%

Oct-20

Sep-20

MOM


Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

235,000

211,693

229,862

11.0%

2.2%

17.3%

17.2%

0.1%


Full-Size Pickup Truck

225,000

204,352

216,154

10.1%

4.1%

16.5%

16.2%

0.3%


Mid-Size Car

100,000

96,107

101,705

4.1%

-1.7%

7.4%

7.6%

-0.3%


Compact Car

90,000

109,010

89,114

-17.4%

1.0%

6.6%

6.7%

-0.1%


Compact SUV/Crossover

85,000

70,934

85,015

19.8%

0.0%

6.3%

6.4%

-0.1%


Grand Total2

1,360,000

1,337,135

1,334,766

1.7%

1.9%






Cox Automotive Industry Insights data 

2 Total includes segments not shown  

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. 

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using cars easier for everyone. The global company’s 34,000-plus team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Clutch Technologies, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with revenues exceeding annual revenues of $21 billion. www.coxautoinc.com

SOURCE Cox Automotive

Related Links

www.coxautoinc.com